The Federal Reserve is poised to make its long-awaited decision about interest rates this week. Beyond the Fed decision, markets will also be watching several major catalysts this week, including GDP estimates, inflation, and consumer sentiment data.
1. US Rates Decision
The Federal Reserve will meet this week and announce its interest rates decision on Wednesday at 2 p.m. A CME watch tool recently raised the odds of a rate hike to 82%, up from 53% a week ago.1
This decision may have a strong spillover impact on the market, especially since investors have already been selling tech stocks due to new inflationary fears.2
Other Central Banks, such as the ECB and DOJ, have hiked rates recently in response to new inflationary pressures. Moreover, the new wave of energy inflation in the past few weeks is another new indicator that could strongly impact Central Bank policy in the coming months.
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2. GDP Estimates
The BEA will release new Q2 2026 growth estimates for the US economy on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
The Federal Reserve Bank of New York currently projects that Q2 2026 GDP growth will reach 2.8%.3
This will be a crucial update for markets this week, as geopolitical tensions have sparked concerns over a slowdown in global growth. GDP growth was 2.1% last quarter, and JP Morgan is currently projecting 1.5-2% growth in 2026.4
3. New Inflation Updates
There will also be new inflation data released this week, which will provide more context to the recent oil price surge.
The PCE Index, which measures price increases excluding food and energy, will be released on Thursday at 8:30 a.m.
The recent increase in inflation in 2026 was largely driven by energy prices.5
However, the PCE Index has also been rising recently, by 4.1% in May, compared to 3.8% in the previous month.6
This uptick is slightly concerning, as it displays how items apart from energy and food are increasing in price.
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4. Consumer Sentiment Updates
Consumer staples stocks have rallied circa 8% YTD, but this performance was largely driven by the surge in these stocks during the first two months of this year.7
Recent geopolitical and inflationary pressures have made the current health of the US consumer market hazy.
Consumer confidence data will be released on Tuesday at 8:00 a.m ET, while personal income and consumer spending data will be released on Thursday at 10:30 a.m ET.
Overall, consumer sentiment has been weakening over the past three years, further exacerbated by the rebound in inflation in 2026.
Consumer stocks are one key area to monitor in markets this week, as there will also be new inflation and interest rate data paired with this new consumer data.
5. Tech Stocks Earnings News
The recent surge in oil prices and concerns over subsequent rate hikes have been putting pressure on tech stocks. The technology sector is likely one of the top sectors to monitor in markets this week.
Major tech giants will be releasing earnings next week, around the same time as the Federal Reserve makes its rate hike decision.
| Company | Earnings Announcement |
| Microsoft | Wednesday July 29th at 2:30 p.m ET |
| Meta Platforms | Wednesday July 29th at market close |
| Amazon | Thursday July 30th at market close |
| Apple | Thursday July 30th at market close |
Tech stocks pulled back by around 3% last week and may be some of the main market movers this week.
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