As geopolitical and inflationary tensions continue to linger, there are plenty of news developments ahead in the markets this week that should provide more insight into the health of the US economy and stock market.
1. US Services PMI
One important piece of data to keep an eye on is the US Services PMI for September, which will be released on Monday, October 5th at 9:45 a.m ET.
Data in recent months has exceeded expectations, as strong consumer demand has helped offset weaker growth in other areas.1
US Services PMI Data
Recent growth in the services sector has also helped to offset comparatively slower growth in the US manufacturing sectors.2
Keep an eye on this new monthly data to see if this trend continues or if there is a reversal in this momentum.
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2. US Trade Balance
Another important piece of data to watch in the markets this week is the release of US trade balance data on Tuesday, October 6th at 9:45 a.m ET.
Recent data from the beginning of Q3 was very concerning, as the US trade deficit reached a high not experienced since March 2025.3
The US export market has been showing concerning signs, as the US economy’s exports recently slumped by 2.1% in July, according to data released in early September.4
This data should provide a better picture of the health of the US economy amid the trade war and geopolitical tensions.
3. Consumer and Labor Market Trends
The combination of prolonged interest rates and sticky inflation has made things much harder for consumers in recent quarters.
There are several important pieces of data to keep an eye on this week, which will complement recent inflation data:
- Consumer credit data will be released on Wednesday, October 7th at 3 p.m ET.
- Weekly jobless claims will be released Thursday, October 8th at 8:30 a.m ET.
- University of Michigan preliminary consumer survey will be released on Friday October 8th at 10:00 a.m ET.
ETFs like the State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLP), which performed very well this year, could be worth monitoring.5
State Street Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR ETF Performance
Consumer staples stocks are generally perceived as a safer bet amid economic tensions and have so far performed very well in the market. Be on the lookout for any changes in consumer sentiment.
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4. Tech Stocks and Inflationary Concerns
Tech stocks have still rallied by nearly 8% in the past month, despite the recent rate hike and inflationary concerns in the market. In particular, it is a good idea to keep a close eye on semiconductor stocks, which have been performing well amid strong earnings growth and acquisition activity.6
The weaker than expected Jobs report also helped to support sentiment for tech stocks. Many investors took this as a sign that the Fed may have more of a reason to delay rate hikes in upcoming meetings.7
Another important trend to monitor that will impact tech equities is the energy markets. Any long-term inflationary fears could spark the risk of additional rate hikes, a move that could deter tech equity investors.
5. Earnings to Watch This Week
There will also be a large number of significant earnings released for consumer companies in the US stock market.
| Company | Earnings Release |
| Constellation Brands | Tuesday, October 6th after the market closes |
| Levi Strauss | Wednesday, October 7th after the market closes |
| Pepsico | Thursday, October 8th after the market closes |
| Delta Airlines | Friday October 9th after the market closes |
These results represent a balance of key themes in the US economy, and should provide more data regarding the health of US consumers.
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